Indonesia and France Could Quietly Prepare a Second Rafale Expansion

Indonesia and France appear to be laying the groundwork for a second expansion of Jakarta’s Dassault Rafale fleet, even as the first batch of aircraft has yet to be fully delivered.

Discussions between French President Emmanuel Macron and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto have reportedly included the possibility of a follow-on order, potentially ranging between 18 and 24 additional aircraft. While no formal announcement has been made, the mere presence of the Rafale in high-level talks is a strong signal that the programme is far from complete.

Indonesia is already committed to 42 Rafales under contracts signed between 2022 and 2024. Deliveries have begun, marking a significant shift in the country’s air power posture. But Jakarta’s ambitions go beyond a simple fleet replacement. The Rafale is increasingly positioned as the backbone of a broader modernization effort aimed at building a credible, multi-layered air combat capability.

A second tranche would not be surprising. Indonesia faces the challenge of maintaining air superiority across a vast archipelago, while balancing competing procurement priorities. Alongside the Rafale, Jakarta is also pursuing other high-end platforms, including the Boeing F-15EX Eagle II and the South Korean KF-21 programme. Expanding the Rafale fleet would provide continuity, reduce logistical fragmentation and accelerate operational readiness.

From the French perspective, the logic is equally clear. Securing a follow-on order would consolidate one of Dassault’s most important export successes in recent years. It would also reinforce France’s strategic presence in Southeast Asia, where defence partnerships are becoming increasingly intertwined with geopolitical competition.

However, the key variable remains financing. Indonesia has historically taken a cautious and phased approach to major defence acquisitions, often spreading commitments over several years. Any additional Rafale order will depend on Jakarta’s ability to structure a viable financial package without disrupting other procurement programmes.