Amid conflicting signals from military and political leadership, Portugal's decision on acquiring F-35 fighters remains uncertain. The Air Force pushes forward, while the Defense Ministry urges caution.
Portugal's effort to replace its aging fleet of F-16 fighter jets has turned into a geopolitical balancing act. While the Portuguese Air Force strongly supports acquiring the fifth-generation F-35A Lightning II, recent political hesitations have cast doubt over the program's future. This blog post explores the internal debate in Lisbon, the reasons behind it, and what it means for Portugal's defense posture and international partnerships.
Portugal’s path toward modernizing its fighter fleet has encountered unexpected turbulence. What once seemed like a straightforward transition from F-16s to the Lockheed Martin F-35A has turned into a debate over national sovereignty, alliance reliability, and long-term strategic independence.
In 2024, Portuguese Air Force Chief General João Cartaxo Alves publicly confirmed the F-35A as the most suitable aircraft to replace Portugal’s aging F-16s. The advanced stealth fighter offered unrivaled interoperability with NATO forces, long-term operational relevance, and cutting-edge technology.
However, in early 2025, Defense Minister Nuno Melo issued statements that took many by surprise. Citing concerns over the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy—especially under a potential second Donald Trump presidency—Melo warned about relying too heavily on American defense technology. He highlighted potential limitations on operational autonomy and maintenance logistics due to the F-35's cloud-based management systems controlled by the U.S.
Melo’s position sparked speculation that Portugal could shift focus to European alternatives. Leading candidates include the French Dassault Rafale, the multinational Eurofighter Typhoon, and Sweden’s Saab Gripen, all of which offer varying degrees of performance and political alignment.
Despite these reservations, the Portuguese Air Force remains firm in its position. On April 22, 2025, General Alves reiterated that the F-35 is “the only fifth-generation aircraft capable of fulfilling our mission requirements and guaranteeing interoperability with NATO.”
At present, Portugal has not entered a formal procurement process or submitted a letter of request to the U.S. government. The decision is now likely to fall into the hands of the next government following national elections scheduled for May 18.
Portugal’s F-35 debate highlights the complex intersection of defense capability and geopolitical risk management. While the Air Force looks toward a future defined by stealth and data-centric warfare, political leadership is weighing national autonomy and alliance dynamics. The final decision will serve as a key signal of Portugal’s defense priorities in an increasingly uncertain world.

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