Marruecos, los rumores del Su-35 y el Su-57 argelino: una señal estratégica

 

Recientemente han circulado rumores sobre la posibilidad de que Marruecos esté evaluando la adquisición de hasta 30 cazas rusos Su-35. La noticia ha aparecido en medios turcos y ha sido recogida por publicaciones como La Razón. Sin embargo, un análisis más detallado sugiere que no se trata tanto de una intención real de compra, sino de una estrategia de señalización geopolítica.

Rumor del Su-35 vs realidad operativa

El Su-35 es un caza de generación 4.5 con excelentes capacidades aire-aire y multirrol. En teoría, podría incrementar significativamente la capacidad de la fuerza aérea marroquí. Pero en la práctica, existen obstáculos importantes:

• Dependencia logística de Rusia
• Riesgo de sanciones estadounidenses bajo la ley CAATSA
• Incompatibilidad con plataformas occidentales existentes como los F-16
• Riesgo de tensar la alineación estratégica con Estados Unidos e Israel

En conclusión, la adquisición del Su-35 es altamente improbable desde un punto de vista operativo.

El objetivo real: el F-15

Marruecos ya opera el F-16 Fighting Falcon, muchos modernizados a estándares avanzados. Sin embargo, frente al incremento de capacidades de Argelia, Rabat necesita un salto cualitativo:

• Superioridad aérea real
• Mayor capacidad de carga y alcance
• Mejor radar y opciones de guerra electrónica

El F-15 representa un objetivo mucho más realista y compatible con el ecosistema occidental en el que Marruecos está integrado.

El factor Su-57 argelino

La supuesta adquisición del Su-57 por Argelia añade una capa crítica al equilibrio regional. Aunque la producción y despliegue operativo de esta quinta generación aún es limitada, su existencia cambia la percepción de superioridad aérea.

Marruecos no puede depender únicamente de sus F-16 modernizados. Los rumores del Su-35 funcionan como herramienta de presión y señal: “tenemos alternativas si nuestros aliados no responden”

Señales estratégicas en acción

Este patrón se repite en la geopolítica militar:

• Rival introduce capacidades avanzadas (Su-57 en Argelia)
• Marruecos lanza rumores de escalada (Su-35)
• Los aliados (EE.UU., Israel) observan y ajustan su respuesta

Resultado probable: adquisición de sistemas occidentales de alto nivel (F-15 o mejoras en F-16)

Implicaciones regionales

El rumor en sí mismo altera la percepción en el norte de África, aumenta la presión sobre Argelia y sus aliados occidentales y Marruecos mantiene flexibilidad estratégica mientras negocia con EE.UU. e Israel

Conclusión

Los rumores sobre el Su-35 tienen una baja probabilidad operativa, pero es uns alta señal estratégica. Un objetivo realista son el F-15  y mejoras avanzadas en los F-16. Con este rumor se estaría utilizando el Su-57 argelino como catalizador de las aspiraciones marroquíes

En el equilibrio aéreo norteafricano, la percepción es casi tan importante como la realidad, y Marruecos parece estar utilizando cada herramienta disponible para asegurarse un salto cualitativo frente a Argelia.

Russia Confirms Using Su-57 Fighters In Ukraine War

The Russian MoD finally broke its silence on using Su-57 fighters in the ongoing special military operations (SMO). General Sergei Surovikin, commander of the joint group of troops in the area of the SMO, told reporters on Tuesday, October 18, 2022.

“In terms of the quality of combat use, I would especially like to single out the Su-57 fifth-generation multifunctional aircraft. Having a wide range of weapons, it solves multifaceted tasks of hitting air and ground targets in each sortie,” he said.

Earlier, in June 2022, Izvestia had reported that Russia had deployed four Su-57 for the SMO, and the aircraft was being used to establish a tactical information network.

Earlier in 2018, Russia officially acknowledged using four Su-57 during the Syrian campaign.“The stay of our four Su-57s in Syria has certainly allowed us to obtain additional information about the capabilities of this machine to detect American F-22s and F-35s that are in the same theatre of operations.”

Syrian operational experience notwithstanding, many operational capabilities of the Su-57 likely remained to be tested before the start of the SMO on February 24, 2022. Therefore, Russian employment of the fighter has been cautious. Operational restrictions on its use likely include stand-off attacks and tactical information networking only.

eurasiantimes 

Israel concerned over Su-57 debut in Syria

Video footage appearing to show Su-57s arriving in Syria was confirmed by pictures captured by an Israeli imaging satellite. The new type's deployment marks the peak of Moscow's direct intervention so far in Syria's long-running civil war.
Israeli sources assess that Russia has sent dozens of new weapon systems to Syria, to undergo testing under combat conditions. But the Su-57's arrival – which places two of the world's most advanced stealthy combat aircraft within close proximity – creates a unique situation.
While Israel has not reacted officially to the development, a senior source says there is no doubt that Moscow has sent its newest fighter to the region in order to test it against Western technologies.
In mid-February, the biennial "Juniper Cobra" exercise, which also involves US forces, began in Israel. The three-week activity is aimed at improving the nation's defences against ballistic missile threats, using a scenario where US assets are deployed to provide assistance.
The exercise creates a situation where a large number of advanced radars are looking at the airspace across the region, making the Su-57's arrival of particular interest.
Russia claims to have developed a new radar system that can detect stealth aircraft, but sources suggest that the Sunflower system may lack the fidelity required to support targeting by missiles.
Syrian reports indicate that the Israeli air force is flying over the country on a daily basis using manned and unmanned platforms, and also striking targets. Moscow's new deployment – made two weeks after a border clash during which an Iranian-operated stealth unmanned air vehicle and an Israeli Lockheed F-16 were shot down – means the "hot line" established to deconflict the movements of Russian and Israeli aircraft will become more critical.
flightglobal

Russia flies first Su-57 fitted with new Product 30 engine

Russia’s latest fighter aircraft flew on 5 December for the first time with the NPO Saturn “Product 30” engine, which will be the production standard for the Sukhoi Su-57.
Sukhoi has built and flown nine flight test prototypes of the Su-57 fighter powered by NPO Saturn Product 117 engines, which are derived from the AL-41F-1S afterburning turbofans developed for the Su-35.
But the Russian air force plans to replace the Product 117 in series production starting in 2020 with the Product 30 engines, possibly featuring a new engine core of which few details are known.
Russian government officials have said the Product 30 will provide more thrust and fuel efficiency, with reduced weight and maintenance requirements.
The 5 December test flight by Sukhoi chief test pilot Sergei Bogdan from the Gromov flight test centre at Zhukovsky AB lasted 17min, according to Russia’s Ministry for Industry and Trade.
Photos and video of the flight shows the Product 30 installed in the No. 1, or port-side, engine position, with a Product 117 engine remaining on the starboard side. The Product 30 features a serrated engine nozzle, compared to the flat nozzle on the Product 117.
The flight test was conducted by the second Su-57 aircraft prototype, also known as T-50-2.
flightglobal