F-35 Replacement for Portugal's F-16s Unlikely Before 2027. F-35 Consolidates as NATO's Primary Combat Aircraft

Shortly after the chief of the Portuguese air force indicated interest in replacing the nation's F-16 fighters with the F-35, the government clarified that there are currently no immediate intentions to pursue the Lockheed Martin-produced fifth-generation fighter.

'This is a vision for the future, so there is currently no process of acquiring aircraft to replace the F-16s, according to an spokesperson from the office of Portugal’s defense minister to 'Breaking Defense.com'

General João Cartaxo Alves, the chief of staff of the Portuguese Air Force, raised the prospect during a military airlift and air refueling conference in Lisbon on Monday, mentioning that the F-35 aircraft could potentially replace the current F-16 in the future. This aligns with other European partner states that transitioned from the F-16 to the F-35.

Regarding whether Lisbon is considering alternative aircraft for this role, the spokesperson did not provide a response to that inquiry.

Notably, Portugal's Military Programming Law (LPM) proposal, approved by the country's Council of Ministers in March 2023, does not include any reference to the acquisition of the F-35 or efforts to replace the F-16. This program outlines significant defense acquisitions and long-term national defense spending, allocating €5.5 billion ($6 billion) until 2034. The current priorities in this plan encompass eight major acquisitions, notably featuring a new Close Support Aircraft program and ongoing projects such as orders for Embraer KC-390 Millennium tanker transport aircraft and six additional Viana do Castelo-class ocean patrol ships.

Nevertheless, it seems evident that the F-35 will eventually replace the F-16 in the Portuguese Air Force. Several NATO countries that have utilized the F-16 as their primary combat aircraft are already integrating it, such as Norway, the Netherlands, and Denmark. Belgium anticipates its initial deliveries by December 2023. The F-35 has partially replaced the Tornado in the United Kingdom and Italy, and it will do so in Germany, which is set to receive 35 units starting from 2027.

Poland will receive the initial units out of a total of 32 starting from 2025. In Finland, 64 F-35s will replace the F-18 C/D Hornet. Additionally, other NATO countries on the verge of confirming their orders for the F-35 include Greece, Romania, and the Czech Republic. One non-NATO European country that has also declared its preference for the F-35 is Switzerland, with an announced intended purchase of 36 units.

Turkey and Spain are the remaining countries yet to integrate the F-35 into their air forces. Turkey, due to the US veto stemming from its purchase of Russian weaponry (S-400 missiles), coupled with the country's shift towards an Islamic political orientation, will not proceed with the integration.

Spain, despite initially displaying significant interest, appears to have distanced itself from acquiring the F-35. There has been a noticeable withdrawal, including the abandonment of the 'B' version for vertical takeoff and landing to replace the Spanish Navy's nearly obsolete Harrier fleet. Recent acquisitions of Eurofighter aircraft under the Halcón I and II programs, along with the absence of definitive statements regarding the purchase of F-35Bs, seem to solidify this decision.